The VantagePoint AI Market Outlook is designed to help traders. It’s important to remain aware of correlations in the global markets. Traders can become more profitable if they know how to get ahead of the trends. Utilizing the predictive indicators in VantagePoint Software can help traders find the right trades and the right times. Above all, traders know when to enter and exit those trades for maximum profit. Let’s look at the charts for Equities, Commodities, and Forex Pairs.
Hello everyone and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman and this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of November the 18th, 2019.
U.S Dollar Index
Now to get started this week, we’re going to begin where we always do with that very important US dollar index. Now we’ve been talking about this one over the last few weeks anticipating that the dollar would move lower. That’s come to fruition this week at basically around the time that I had discussed in last week’s weekly outlook as the dollar basically peaked here around the 13th of the month, virtually at almost the exact same time it did last month and the month before that. Now that doesn’t mean the dollar is going to continue to move lower, but it certainly does look like it will. The key support level we want to watch this coming week is 97.83. Now our medium-term crossing, our longterm predicted difference combined with our neural index, one of the most powerful indicator setups in the VantagePoint software.
Once again, very accurately warning us that the dollar was getting ready to move lower. Now when we look at our predicted RSI, we’re looking for momentum to build below the 40 level of the RSI to see if we can actually accelerate this move lower on the dollar.
Now not surprisingly, gold has turned around and reversed on that dollar weakness as I had stated in last week’s weekly outlook that we should anticipate this to continue. Now the one thing we want to make sure they were always doing in our trading is identifying the overall range that we’re dealing with here. As you can see with gold this time, we’re not even coming down and testing the lower part of that range. We’ve already reversed just below this major support level that we’ve been talking about at 1460.00. It definitely looks like a bear trap here that I basically warned everybody about last week that we would absolutely be buyers on a dip on gold.
We just need confirmation from VantagePoint to tell us when the market is getting ready to turn. Also looking at the 31 other markets that are correlated to gold. We can see that the medium-term crossing the longterm predicted difference with the neural index has given us that warning sign that gold is unlikely to move much lower. Now we’ve seen it move down into the 1446.00 area just slightly pushing outside of this major support area only to turn around and reverse. Now for this coming week. If we can anticipate further dollar weakness, then we should anticipate further strength in gold. Once we retake that 1481.00 level, we should see gold move back towards the top of the immediate range.
Now one of the driving factors is going to be the equity markets, the S&P 500 again reacting to news headlines around this US-China trade deal.
Whether there is one, there isn’t one. It’s positive, it’s negative, it’s phase one, it’s phase two. It’s just a really a media circus around this, but they keep buying into stocks based around something is to be settled. I’m not in that particular camp, but again, most of these indicators are grossly overbought. They’ve been overbought for several weeks now, so we should always be on guard for a significant corrective move lower.
The further we move away from these key VantagePoint levels, the more likely it is we’re going to retrace back to it. I would anticipate this coming week that we will, at some point during the week, retrace back to 3065.00. The other critical VantagePoint level on an intraday basis as you can see on a day to day basis would be 3097.00 we can absolutely anticipate a retest of this level and if we lose 3097.00, we would look for a move back to 3065.00. We lose 3065.00, then we’re going to likely move back into the lower end of this range, probably around 2980.00 that is the move we would look for. Now, oil continues to benefit from this.
Light Sweet Crude Oil
It’s hard to say whether it’s a fake rally in the equity markets or if it’s a real rally, but I would say, again, only in my respectful opinion that it’s all news-driven. We know that China always plays the long game. I believe that they’re just stringing the current administration along until the next one comes in and they have no intention of settling anything. When we look at oil, we’ve got major, major resistance up here at 57.87 we’ve had a good strong close, but you’ll notice the low of the day at 56.53 that’s come right down to this T cross long, this critical VantagePoint pivot area, 56.43 and has shot out of there. So, but again, the verified resistance zone is where this particular commodity is struggling to break through this level. In my respectful opinion, again, only we would need the S&P 500 to move towards the 31.50, 31.60 area if the oil is going to go any higher from here.
Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)
Now as we start to get into our major Forex payers here, guys, a lot going on, but once again, as I’ve talked about in the past, the inner market correlation that gold currently has to the Euro and as gold started to turn around, we can assess that these two charts are almost identical. We’ve got our medium-term crossing our longterm predicted difference with our neural index. We’ve hit exactly on a verified zone at 1.0996 and we see the Euro reverse. Now, that doesn’t mean the Euro is automatically going to go higher next week. We’ve got 1.1058, we’re closing the week at 1.1051. We must break through 1.1058 and stay above these guys for the entire week, not just one or two days. Okay, we need to hold above this area then and only then can we retarget this 1.1170 area.
Right now, the indicators from VantagePoint our RSI at 53.3 is looking good. Not a lot of momentum, but there is some, the medium-term crossing the longterm predicted difference in the neural index along with the gold contracts all suggest that the Euro-US is going to go higher next week, not lower.
U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
Now as we come into the Euro’s counterpart, which is the US-Swiss Franc, once again, if this was a true rally on the S&P 500, money would be coming out of our risk-off currencies like the yen, the Swiss Franc. When they’re not, they’re going into these currencies. Once again, something is very wrong here guys and that’s all we need to assess whether we’re right or wrong. We just need to understand that normally when the S&P 500 is going higher, the dollar-yen is going higher. US-Swiss Franc is going higher. They have gone slightly higher, but they’ve immediately sold off.
So again, in my respectful opinion, this very well could be the warning sign that we’re looking for, that the S&P 500 is getting ready to crash. Now our medium-term has crossed our longterm predicted difference to the downside yet again, but our RSI is still stable at 50. If we’ve got momentum, we’re going to be down below this 40 area, so this is what we’re going to be watching to see if that RSI can gauge the momentum and see if we’re going to get a further breakout to the downside. That would also lead to another move back down on the dollar-yen. We have been repeatedly selling this thing anywhere near 109, shorts have worked very well. They continue to work. They’re trying to flush out the shorts here, but the longterm trend on the dollar-yen is clearly down.
U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
We have been repeatedly selling this thing anywhere near 109, shorts have worked very well. They continue to work. They’re trying to flush out the shorts here, but the longterm trend on the dollar-yen is clearly down.
This is why we have to back our charts out. When we look at something and somebody will make a statement to me that the dollar-yen is super bullish. When I back my chart over out from a year, you can see that that’s simply not factual. Over the last year, the dollar-yen has struggled to make any kind of gains above the 112, 114 area. Now we have the S&P 500 above 3100 and the dollar-yen is moving lower, not higher. The Intermarket correlation there, I would be happy, maybe this is an easier way to say it. I would be a happy buyer of the S&P 500 if the dollar-yen can get above 110. That’s what I’m looking for here. I’m not going to study the two charts individually. I’m going to combine them both.
So that’s basically the stance that I take that I know that if the S&P 500 is going to go to 3,200, 3,300 or anywhere near these areas, the dollar-yen and US dollar, US-Swiss Franc must get above parity and dollar-yen must get above 110 and right now it continues to struggle.
British Pound/U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD)
That’s what we look for here. Now what the British pound US dollar going into next week’s trading, longs are clearly in play here. Guys, you can see that we retested the critical VantagePoint T cross long every single day last week. If you’re a savvy trader, you’re watching this video, you understand how to play these pivot areas. Basically every day we buy the bottom, we, it goes up 60, 50, 60, 70, 80 pips. We close it out, we wash, rinse and repeat the next day, but now we’re starting to accelerate off. You’ll notice on Friday we did not come down and test 128.37, which at least suggests to me looking at the predicted differences, the predicted RSI, that the pound dollar is getting ready to make its move to the upside. Now again, if that is the case, then we could actually see Bitcoin recover next week also. In a true fashion of a true market outlook, I believe that Bitcoin should be included in this.
I believe that there is still trade here. We’ve lost a lot. There’s been some pretty heavy support here at 8600.00 but the real support that I’ve been watching is down here at the bottom of the range. This is actually one of the most dangerous times to trade any asset class when it’s right in the middle of the range and by the middle, I mean we’ve got a high on Bitcoin, up here right now at 10289.00 and we’ve got a low on Bitcoin. It’s basically around 7354.00 I prefer to buy the bottom down here or sell the top up here and play within this broader range. Much like what we’ve been doing very successfully in gold, but we’ve predominantly only been buying gold with Bitcoin. I prefer to buy it then sell it at this current time, but again, I think there could be something coming on dollar weakness. If the US dollar starts to weaken, that should put some money back into Bitcoin next week or the week after.
U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
So remember that guys, there is something there. Now with our three main commodity currencies, again going into next week, the US CAD, it’s stalling up around this 1.3270 area, but it’s been a pretty good trade most of the week. The medium-long trade, that is. Now the medium-term crossing the longterm predicted difference. We’re just now after all this, the neural index has turned down, so this is a warning sign that US Canada may not be moving higher from here. The level that you want to watch this week is 1.3189. If we can hold above 1.3189, our predicted Mac D continues to advance and our RSI holds above 50 then loans will still be viable, but right now this does appear to be setting up for a potential short. If we look at the high for the week, if we take a line here and draw it on there, we can see that the high for the week here is 1.3270. We would have to overtake that level very quickly, probably by Tuesday of next week, if this is going to remain bullish.
Again, an excellent way to gauge this too is looking at a signal like this. Using our predicted moving average by itself, this is the first day that we’ve actually closed below this VantagePoint longterm or long predicted. We’ve got 31 other markets forecasted into this blue line. The theory here, if we hold above it, we’re long and if we break down below it, we’re short. So yes, right now we have a short signal that is very fresh. 132.31 guys, watch that number like a hawk on Monday and Tuesday. If we’re staying below that level one or two days in a row, then a short is likely coming. This would target again back into the lower end of this verified zone down around 113.15 if we can break through that critical T cross long at 131.89.
Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD) & New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar (NZD/USD)
Now, Aussie US and New Zealand US. New Zealand, clearly the stronger currency, but we do have a fresh buy signal on the Aussie currency, Aussie US dollar.
More or less, I think it’s based around that weakness around the US dollar. But you can see here the medium-term crossing the longterm predicted difference. The neural index is in agreement and we’ve got a rising RSI, so we would look for longs here. Once again here, we must break. Right now we would target 68, I can almost guarantee you we’re going to come up and test 0.6843 but I cannot guarantee you that we’re going to break through that level. So we use this again with our long predicted to gauge this level. This is the immediate pivot area here at 0.6833. So while you can see that there’s a lot of resistance around this area, if we can break both of these two levels, then the Aussie should be able to run back up towards the 0.6930 area. I think that there’s a possibility of that, but it’s 50-50 at best here guys.
We must break through the immediate resistance zone. Now New Zealand actually is having a pretty decent month, very different and I very seldom see this, where the Aussie and New Zealand are completely different, but the bank of New Zealand getting a little hawkish there and that boosted the New Zealand currency. So right now there could be some a little bit better value buying Aussie US than there is New Zealand. But as long as New Zealand is holding above 0.6368, things look pretty good. And again, if we come back and use our long predicted, you can see that it’s using that blue line. There now is a pivot area at 0.6381. So we’re looking to hold above 0.6381, see if we can get this thing moving and then retarget this level at 0.6475.
So with that said, this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of November the 18th, 2019.